Between the ambulance chasers, frivolous lawsuits, corporate maneuvering, high finance, and other big dollar areas of our society which are controlled by attorneys, it’s no wonder that dead lawyer jokes are as common as peanuts on a Southwest 737.

It’s understandable. Consider our nation’s finest minds, our most brilliant and highly educated physicians. These are people have worked their way to the pinnacle of the most highly competitive and respected field of work on the planet. They can cure the obscure diseases, reattach severed limbs, and banish pain. Yet these very same people cower in fear at a simple legal envelope bearing a return address containing the phrase “The Law Offices of…”

The sad fact of the matter is that attorneys hold all the power in modern America, and that is bound to create some resentment.

Even so, I don’t know many people who would have wished yesterday’s events upon Jerry Curry. Mr. Curry is a 53 year old Van Nuys attorney who was shot multiple times on live TV at point blank range over a dispute in a probate case.

If you haven’t seen the video, it’s pretty incredible. The assailant, William Striler, walked up to Curry outside the Van Nuys courthouse and began shooting. Curry took refuge behind a small tree and attempted to duck and weave around gunshots being fired from less than one foot away. After a half dozen shots, Striler said, “That’s what you get for taking my money” and walked away.

According to news sources, the Striler’s story was this: he’d been injured in an accident a year ago, and had received a $100,000 settlement. These funds were earmarked for his physical therapy and rehabilitation. The court had put these funds into a trust and appointed a professional trustee to manage the money (this was probably done due to some physical or mental disability on Striler’s part).

Anyway, this court appointed trustee had been collecting money for “managing” the trust (which is completely legal). Striler wanted access to the funds, so he had to hire an attorney, which cost him money. The trustee then hired Mr. Curry to defend the trust. Mr. Curry was being paid by the trustee out of Mr. Striler’s own assets in the trust. So in essence, Striler’s money was involuntarily being sucked out by attorneys to defend against his own attempt to gain access to money that was rightfully his.

Now I would be the last one to defend Mr. Striler’s actions, but I have to admit that his frustration and story are a familiar one. And from what I know of the probate court system, I am surprised this sort of thing doesn’t happen more often.

Our legal system has many problems. This is no surprise. But this incident brings to light one of the least publicized ones: the slow pace at which the probate courts operate. When I say slow, I mean slow.

There are several court systems. For example, the criminal courts are probably the fastest–if you kill someone, you’ll get your day in court pretty quickly. A little slower are the civil courts. So if you sue someone for slander, you’ll get your day in court, but it might take a while. The tax courts are slower still. But the granddaddy of them all is the probate court. This is primarily a court system for the assets of people who have died. So speed is not required, right?

Wrong.

Sometimes people are waiting on those assets in order to do things like buy food or pay for medical care (which was apparently the case for Mr. Striler). If it sounds like I have some personal experience with this, I do.

In 1982, my father died. I was ten years old at the time. When he died, his will was admitted to probate. The case remained open for fifteen years. By the time it was over, one attorney had been suspended by the state bar, the original trustee was being investigated by the court, and I gone from fifth grade to being a college graduate and the final trustee for the estate. I won’t bore you with the details, but let’s just say it was a mess. What should have been a substantial estate was in ruins, and I walked away from the experience feeling that the legal system had done nothing but feed its own largesse by robbing a child after he was orphaned.

Even so, I can’t cast an aspersion against all attorneys. I’ve encountered some fantasic lawyers, two of which tried to bail my father’s estate out of the mess it was in. They did the best they could, and I will always remember their efforts. But the years of mismanagement and outright illegal conduct by certain parties had taken their toll.

Beyond the criminal conduct in my father’s estate, there are numerous other problems with the current probate court. The trustee situation is one of them. Right now, courts can appoint a professional trustee to run things. The problem is that they collect fees for their services, fees that in many cases can bleed away the assets until there is nothing left for the beneficiary except a mountain of paperwork. When I became executor of my father’s estate, I did so primarily because my attorney told me that if I didn’t, the court would appoint one and there would be nothing left by the time the fees were paid. So fresh out of college, I got to step right into the middle of a decade-old legal battle.

The probate courts are also extremely slow, unresponsive, and the oversight of trustees, executors, and attorneys is sorely lacking, as is appropriate punishment for those in the legal system who violate the law.

The past is the past. No sense dwelling on it. But as I said, I can understand Mr. Striler’s aggrevation with a probate case.

In the best of all possible worlds, this shooting would end with justice for Mr. Striler and a big dose of reform for our probate courts. If history is any indication, though, it will probably end with a lot of sensationalistic news clips for CNN and a visit to Oprah for Mr. Curry.

And so it goes.

Reason #1845 Not To Own A Macintosh

I’ve never been a huge Macintosh fan. It’s not that the computers themselves suck, though I must admit I’ve used the Mac a lot over the years and in my experience it crashes more often than the Windows boxes I’ve owned. My dislike of the Macintosh has more to do with the irritating attitude displayed by so many Apple fanatics. You know the type. They wear black all the time, attend poetry readings in burned out buildings in the bad part of town, and make it perfectly clear to anyone within earshot that you are nothing unless you own a translucent computer that says “Hello” when you turn it on.

Add to this the fact that Apple Computer continually runs ads with the same holier-than-thou attitude, and it really becomes a turn off. It wouldn’t matter if they had the fastest, cheapest, most crash-proof computers ever created. I still wouldn’t buy one.

The last straw was this idiotic “Switch” campaign. Who came up with the idea of a marketing campaign based on telling 90% of computer users that they were idiots to buy their current computer? If Apple put half as much effort into their products as they do to trashing Wintel technology, the Macintosh would have cured cancer years ago.

Apple should really be careful about making such lofty claims of stability (”It Doesn’t Crash”). The hype has been out of control in Cupertino for a long time.

That’s part of the reason I read articles like this one with a certain warped glee. I hate to see users lose their data, but shouldn’t they have had it backed up, especially if they were performing a major upgrade to the operating system? I love the guy who bemoaned the loss of his kid’s baby pictures. If they were that important, why weren’t they backed up? Are blank CD-Rs too expensive?

I especially liked the part where they had to tell Macintosh owners that if the Firewire drive was not connected to the computer, your data wouldn’t be affected. Nice.

If the day ever comes when Apple markets the Macintosh line based on its own merits instead of trashing Windows from dawn to dusk, I might give it a second look. But I’m not holding my breath.

Ahhh, fresh air and rain–manna from heaven!

It seems that Mother Nature has accomplished what 15,000 firefighters, dozens of aircraft, and millions of dollars could not. The fires are finally under control. It’s been two weeks of pure hell for many Southern Californians, not to mention something like a million acres of land and a couple thousand homes burned.

Disasters of this type always produce some powerful images. Here are a few I found particularly memorable:

   

   

The damage is extensive, but it could have been much worse. I can only imagine the swath of destruction this inferno would’ve left in its wake had it reached into the San Fernando Valley.

The part of Orange County I live in was thankfully spared. Come to think of it, the whole county was nearly untouched by fire, though we did have quite a bit of fallout–ash, debris, and extremely poor air quality and visibility. The Santa Ana wind conditions carried all that stuff out toward the ocean, and that means it all had to pass through Orange County on its way out. Once the wind changed directions, the air cleared immediately even though the fires were still out of control.

The residual effects of this fire season are likely to remain with us for a long time. So much stuff was burned that it’s affected the most obscure areas of our lives. Let me give you one example. Have a look at this:

Any idea what this is?

It’s the Fillmore VOR (”FIM”), a heavily used radio navigation aid. Or should I say, it was the Fillmore VOR. It used to look like this.

Located northwest of the Los Angeles basin, FIM is the primary navaid for air traffic from northern California and the Pacific Northwest heading into southern California. It defines portions of two high-altitude jet airways and seven low-altitude Victor airways. The loss of this VOR affects nine departure procedures at six airports, 10 standard arrival routes (STARs) at six airports, and 30 approach procedures at eight airports. (Map)

The FAA says the area has good radar and radio coverage, so controllers are vectoring air traffic along the route to compensate for the loss of FIM. There are no GPS routes in existence or planned that could be used to replace Fillmore VOR, and because of terrain and coverage issues, no other existing VOR signals could be used to compensate.

Few people in the L.A. basin would know what Fillmore was or think much about it. But the ripple effect from FIM’s destruction will cause air traffic delays as far away as Seattle for months to come.

Technology has effectively made the world a much smaller place. So the “butterfly effect” from this fire is going to reach across the country, if not the globe, in ways most of us may not even be aware of.

Here’s hoping we don’t see anything like it again for a long, long time.

Ever heard the phrase “bread ‘n butter”? If a couple walking down the street hand in hand are seperated by a pole, mailbox, or other obstruction, you say “bread ‘n butter”. I don’t know why, but you just do.

I consider myself fairly cultured, but this one completely escaped me until I met Lesley. I figured it was an English thing, but maybe not! Someone else wrote about it.

It’s painful to watch an airplane die. They have a spirit, much like people. It’s tough to describe, but if you fly planes or work on them, you’ll know what I mean. There’s a connection there. It’s a combination of the quirks, smells, dings, and history of a particular aircraft.

The most interesting thing about it is that this “heartbeat” is absent from planes retired to museums. Once oil streaks and bug marks are replaced by layers of dust, the spirit disappears. It’s like a stuffed animal. The body is there and the eyes are open, but there’s not a semblance of life to be found in it.

So I’ve been watching the Concorde’s swan song over the last few months with a bit of a lump in my throat. I was never enticed enough by the thought of moving at Mach 2+ to fork out the $8,000 for a ticket, but I really liked the airplane and what it represented.

And what was that, exactly? For many it represented nothing more than a stinky, noisy conveyance for the fabulously wealthy. To me, it was a thing of beauty. A flying work of art. Concorde was highly futuristic yet also a testament to aviation’s heyday. It was commercial aviation’s Apollo program–one of those things they said couldn’t be done. It was something so far beyond the status quo that it was hard to even imagine. Did you know that the Concorde actually expanded in flight? At Mach 2, the intense heat caused the jet to grow six inches in length. It flew so high that you could actually see the curvature of the Earth. If you looked up, you’d see black instead of blue because the planet’s atmosphere was almost completely below you.

But what I loved about it was the class. On Concorde you were still treated like a person, not a number. Food was served on china. Linen tablecloths, real silverware, friendly flight attendents. It was like flying the Clipper ships of the 1930s, only at ten times the speed and altitude. Concorde made flying special again–something to be savored and enjoyed, not just endured.

Yes, it’s four Olympus engines consumed fuel like a drunk sailor on shore leave. Yes, it was loud. Yes, the cabin was small, the routes limted, the ticket price astronomical, and boy am I sad I’ll never have a chance to ride that sucker into the stratosphere.

Since revenue service ended last month, British Airways and Air France have been busy delivering the Concordes to various museums around the world. One was donated to the Museum of Flight in Seattle. A friend of mine is based there and got a few photos of a Concorde landing at Boeing Field for the last time. Apparently it caused quite a scene, both in the air and on the ground.

I suppose I’m happy that one of these magnificent beasts is going to my favorite museum. And it’s fitting that Concorde join the SR-71, Apollo capsule, Air Force One, and other gems in the Museum of Flight collection. But a definite sadness remains about seeing this plane grounded.

As if this weren’t enough, another revolutionary aircraft has hit the skids before its time: the Raytheon Starship. Never heard of it? Don’t feel bad, most people haven’t. The Starship was every bit as futuristic as the Concorde. Developed in the early 1980’s, it was designed to replace the most successful business turboprop in history, the King Air.

Starship was revolutionary because it the airframe was made of composites like carbon fiber. Composites are lighter and stronger than aluminum, but they are more complex to manufacture and they haven’t been around that long. Consequently, the FAA was very conservative and required a lot of extra testing and data for certification. It was also difficult and very labor intensive to manufacture, and many of Raytheon’s subcontractors missed critical deadlines. Raytheon itself experienced many delays as it learned to work with resins, adhesives, sealants, and other composite materials.

Here’s a photo of the Starship in flight.

Eventually the bugs were worked out, but the damage had been done. Only 53 Starships were built. And of those, only a small handful were ever sold. Most have remained in Raytheon’s inventory for more than a decade and have been used to supply replacement parts for the existing fleet.

Starship was also one of the very first airplanes to be designed and built using a computer system. Called CATIA, this same system was used to create the Boeing 777.

Anyway, after fifteen years of service, Raytheon decided to buy back the Starships currently flying and ground the fleet permanently. The reason? Pure economics. See, the FAA requires that aircraft parts come from approved sources. That means if you own a Starship and need a part for it, you must get it from Raytheon. That means Raytheon must continue to manufacture parts. They also have to supply revisions to service manuals, issue service bulletins, and so on.

The Starship fleet is too small and the liability costs too high to continue doing this. I’m sure Raytheon has been bleeding red ink for years on the Starship program. So yet another advanced aircraft bites the dust.

Today the Starship fleet sits at Pinal Airpark in Arizona waiting to be chopped up and scrapped:

Concorde and Starship were incredible airplanes. I can’t help but feel the world is a slightly duller place without them, though there is some comfort in knowing that what we learned from building and flying ‘em will live on.

May they rest in peace.

When a 50 year old zooms down the road in a flashy red sports car, we think “midlife crisis”. When a young punk does the same thing, he’s “compensating”.

So what are we to think when a guy buys a 250,000 lb, 600 mph Boeing 707 jetliner?

I’ve known for sometime that John Travolta owns one. In fact, I flew out to Vegas one time and ended up parking next to (more like “under”) a gleaming 707 painted in vintage Qantas colors. Turns out it belonged to the disco king himself.

Built in 1964 for Qantas, it was later sold to Braniff Airlines. Frank Sinatra owned it in 1972, and Kirk Kerkorian purchased it in 1975. Travolta bought the plane in May, 1998. He had leased it back to Qantas for a promotional round-the-world tour, and in exchange Qantas repainted it in the original “V-Jet” colors and also put Travolta through training to receive his 747 type certificate.

So is a 747 on his Christmas list? Doubtful. You can pick up an old one for only a few million dollars–almost certainly within his budget. The real hurdle is the care and feeding. Fuel. Parts. Maintenance. Take insurance, for example. Imagine trying to find a company willing to insure an owner-flown jumbo jet for liability risks, especially in the post-September 11th atmosphere.

But the largest issue would probably be storage. Where does one keep a 747? Or a 707, for that matter? Travolta used to live at a well-known airpark called Spruce Creek Fly-In. Airparks are residential communities built around runways. Instead of a garage, your house has an attached hangar, and your driveway leads directly to the runway. For people whose lives revolve around airplanes, it’s heaven.

Spruce Creek is one of the oldest and most successful airparks, and the 707 was kept there for several years until Travolta was evicted because of noise complaints from his neighbors. It’s the first and only case I know of where airplane owners kicked a fellow pilot out due to airplane noise. But then, you’d have to hear a 707 on takeoff to appreciate it–it’s loud. The concept of “noise pollution” didn’t exist back in the 50’s. I think they were just glad to be able to move from 200 mph piston airliners to 600 mph jets.

Anyway, I’ve often wondered why he made this deal with Qantas. Sure, it’s a great promo for the airline, for aviation, and for his films. But I also suspect that the cost of owning and operating a 707 was steep, even for someone with his income. The 707 demands three pilots in the cockpit and a large team of maintenance personnel on the ground. It has four engines, and overhauling them is around a million dollars. Each. And as nice as his 707 is, there are not many places he can go with it. Either the runways are too short, or the noise ordinances are too strict.

Once he was evicted from Spruce Creek, I lost track of where the plane was based. Until now.

It seems that John has solved his real estate problem. He’s moved to another Florida airpark–a new one called Jumbolair. What an appropriate name! The airport and his $4.9 million estate are large enough to accomodate transport category airliners.

Here’s the Boeing jet parked in the driveway. Or, as I like to call it, “This is not your father’s Oldsmobile”:

Here’s the estate itself. Note that he has two planes there–the 707 and a smaller Gulfstream business jet:

And finally, one of the neatest architectural features of the house, a “control tower” on the roof:

As if the world needed another “make a shorter link” tool.

http://www.rapp.org/url/

I prefer not to use 3rd party services for this kind of stuff because you never know when makeashorterlink.com or tinyurl.com will go down for the count. Or when the service will go to hell. Or, more realistically, when they’ll start charging for their services.

I suppose URL shorteners are so common now that they can’t charge money. But they can resort to banner ads, pop-up ads, or require registration. At that point, any emails or web links that go through them are fubar’d.

Plus, when sending out shortened URLs to others, I prefer to send them links from my own domain. Those who are less technically inclined won’t have to worry about what’ll happen if they click on a link to some web site they’ve never heard of.

So there it is.

Party on, Wayne.

Mathew Emmert’s commentary Housing Still Frenzied is a good read. I agree with most of what he says, but there were two glaring omissions.

First, in the “Equity Schmequity” section, he misses the point of people’s argument when they say owning is superior to renting because you build equity. There are two ways to build equity in a home. One is by paying down the principal balance. As he noted, that doesn’t happen until many years after inception. The other way is through price appreciation of the home itself. In the last few years, most major metropolitan areas have seen unprecedented price spikes. That’s where most people’s equity comes has come from.

While I don’t believe this can continue, over the long term home ownership has been like equity ownership–they’ve both trended upward at a good clip, especially if you live in the right area.

That brings me to the second thought. At the end of the article he mentions several housing markets he has concerns about. Boston, New York, Washington DC, etc. I was astounded to see that Southern California wasn’t on the list!

I live in Irvine. Certainly a nice area. But let me tell you my story. I bought my condo in 1993 for $121,000. For that I got 978 sq ft, 2 bedroom, 1 bath, no garage, no a/c, no heat, and no yard. (see photos) In 1997 it was appraised at $90,000. Today an exact comp sells for more than $300,000. I paid my original $90,000 loan down to $85,000 then refinanced at $130,000 to pay a big tax bill. This means I’ve lived in my house for free for a decade. My mortgage payment, property tax payments, and HOA dues have all come back to me in increased equity.

My friend who lives just a few miles down the road bought his home there in 1978 for something like $23,000. He sold it recently for more than $700,000. He said the same thing–”hey, I’ve lived here for free for a quarter of a century!” He is not unique in any sense of the word.

The Southern California real estate market is truly out of control. Prices in my area have gone up as much as 300% in the past six years (sound like any other market we know?). During that time, traffic gridlock has increased dramatically. The schools are worse than ever. The state deficit is worse than ever. The business climate is worse than ever. So what accounts for the huge increases?

Yes, a lot of people are moving to Southern California, but it’s mostly poor immigrants and workers from areas where homes don’t cost half a million dollars. So who’s buying all these homes? Low interest rates can’t account for all of it. I just don’t understand how people can afford these home prices. Frankly, the property tax on a typical detached home these days is enough to give me nightmares. 1.25% of $500,000? No thanks.

I predict a major reduction in home prices in places like this. Personal bankruptcies and consumer debt at an all time high. Housing outlays at at an all time high when considered as a percentage of income. Savings at an all time low. It doesn’t take a genius to see what’s in the crystal ball.

I’m surprised the other shoe hasn’t already dropped. On the other hand, with the economy improving, the worst should have already happened. But I’ve noticed that prices in the housing market don’t move in lock-step with the rest of the economy. Prices in California bottomed out in 1997, and the economy was healthy at that time. They also hit a high back in the early 1990s when George H.W. Bush was losing the election to Bill Clinton over the economy.

Anyway, back to today. This market is a goldmine for some people. Those moving from Socal to Iowa, for example. Or older folks who are moving downward in the market now that the kids are out of the house. Retirees moving to less expensive areas. That sort of thing.

The good news is that for those who are observant and patient, when the market does turn, they’ll gain a lot of leverage and have their pick of many fine homes simply by virtue of being on the buyer’s side of the table. My advice (not that anyone asked for it) would be to keep cash on the sidelines, keep your debt low, and wait. Markets go up and they go down. When you’re purchasing an asset of such high value, a little market timing makes sense. Especially when the signs of excess are so clear.

The media is focusing more and more on the upcoming 100th anniversary of powered flight. In case you’ve been living in a hermetically sealed bubble, that date is December 17, 2003. That’ll mark one hundred years since the Wright Brothers achieved powered flight on the windswept expanse of North Carolina’s Outer Banks with an aircraft that I still can’t believe actually got into the air.

Here’s one such article from CNN.

The more I learn about the 1903 Wright Flyer, the more I think luck was a massive element in the Wilbur and Orville’s success. So I’m a little curious to see if the key event in the centennial celebration–a recreation of that first flight–will succeed.

Obviously, the original Wright Flyer is too old and valuable to pull out of the National Air & Space Museum for a flight. So a replica was built by Ken Hyde at The Wright Experience. The goal is to fly this thing on December 17th at the exact moment when the Wright’s made their first flight.

When I say an exact replica, I mean exact. Hyde went so far as to use the exact same fabrication techniques the Wright’s employed. And doing that was not easy. The original Flyer was covered in a material which is not made anymore. And the Wright brothers destroyed all their construction notes and plans because they were in the process of patenting three-axis flight control and didn’t want any of their work to end up in the hands of competitors. So Hyde has been forced to reverse engineer much of the technology and answer questions about the engine and airframe that we really aren’t sure about even today.

Anyway, the Wrights did have some flight experience when they made the first powered flight. They had constructed and flown a series of gliders and kites between 1899 and 1903. These helped them validate their theories and find avenues for improvement in the aircraft design.

Today’s Wright Flyer pilots are training for the Big Day as well. In fact, the replica made its first flight today.

Still, I wonder about luck. There’s no doubting that the Wright brothers were experimenters and scientists of the first order. A lot of skill and research went into their work. But I mean, what if it’s raining at 10:35 a.m. on December 17th? Will the aircraft fly in the rain? Will they even attempt it?

What if the notorious winds of the Outer Banks gust and blow at 50 mph? What if there’s no wind at all? The Wright’s traveled to North Carolina from their home in Dayton, Ohio specifically because of that wind. They needed it to get the Flyer airborne by the time it came off the launch rail.

Sure, the Wrights were successful. Eventually. But many people don’t know that they broke many aircraft and even injured themselves on occasion before making that first flight. So what will happen when modern pilots try to fly this oddball aircraft?

The Wright Flyer was not an easy aircraft to control. For one thing, the cruise speed and stall speeds were very close together. In modern aviation parlance, this is called a “coffin corner”. Not good. Also, the Flyer had a very odd control system. It didn’t employ modern control surfaces like ailerons. Instead the Wright’s invented method of physically warping the wings. This changed their camber and therefore the amount of lift they provided. The pilot actuated this by sliding his hips as he laid down on top of the lower wing. (see how it worked)

The Flyer also had a CG (center of gravity) problem. And then there’s the engine. It had no throttle. It was either on or it was off. And it had no landing gear to speak of, just a set of wooden skids which could easily dig into the grass and nose the aircraft over. Now add in some wind and the fact that neither brother had ever flown this thing before and you can see what they were up against.

The pilots who will fly the replica on December 17th are being trained by Scott Crossfield, one of the most famous and highly respected former test pilots alive. If the weather cooperates, they have a good chance of success. But make no mistake about it, that plane is a tough customer even under the best of circumstances. This event could easily end with someone getting hurt.

In fact, the original Wright Flyer was actually destroyed on December 17, 1903–the same day it made its first flight! The brothers made their four famous flights, and on the fifth attempt that day Wilbur nosed the plane into the ground, breaking off the canard. They tried to carry the machine back to their shed, but the wind was so strong it overturned the plane and smashed it into pieces. The broken plane never flew again.

In some ways, the flight of the replica seems far more hazardous than the flight of the original. The Wright brothers flew on December 17th because the conditions were right for them to make an attempt. The replica is going to fly on December 17th because that’s the anniversary. If the conditions are poor, the 2003 flight may be attempted in conditions the Wright brothers would have rejected 100 years earlier.

So there you have it. Recreating history authentically, right down to the risk to life and limb. I hope Lady Luck smiles on December 17th, just for old time’s sake.

A few days ago I wrote about the growing imbalance in many residential real estate markets and theorized that housing prices were going to have to decline sooner or later.

But I couldn’t figure out exactly what would cause this “irrational exuberance” to snap. Obviously a huge spike in interest rates would do it, but how would such a thing come about?

I think I found my answer in a Reuters article about foreign money coming into U.S. financial markets. Unfortunately I can’t find the article now–it was on my Palm VII PDA–but others have voiced basically the same thought.

The United States accounts for about 30% of the world’s wealth, but we consume about 80% of global capital. This makes sense, because not only has the U.S. historically been a good place to invest, but it’s also been relatively safe and stable. For most of the 20th century, there was simply no better place to put your money.

But that seems to be changing. First, U.S. markets are experiencing increased volatility. Second, the appreciation of domestic investments over the past couple of decades points toward a need for foreign investors to rebalance their portfolios. And third, new international markets are emerging as an viable alternative to the U.S.

The significance is that foreign investors are getting nervous about their sizable investments in Treasury notes and the U.S. dollar. They simply have too much of their net worth riding on the U.S. economy. If they take their money elsewhere, it might prove difficult to find buyers for American dollars and bonds. If we can’t sell those bonds, the Treasury Department will have to raise interest rates to make the bonds more attractive.

Now you’ve got higher interest rates, which means home buyers will have to pay more for that overpriced $500,000 ranch house. That should push prices down.

The only question is how severe the spike in interest rates will be. The key metrics are likely to be the amount of debt the U.S. needs to finance (at this rate, a hell of a lot) and the performance of the dollar, which has been poor.

Individually and as a nation, we’ve been financing our comfortably lifestyle for 40 years using foreign capital. Just think what would happen if the rest of the world suddenly wasn’t interested in investing here anymore.

On the other hand, it’s possible foreign investors could get burned while the U.S. economy comes away scot-free. This happened in the 1980s and 90s when Japan invested heavily in U.S. commercial real estate and bought out many large American companies like Universal only to sell them a few years later at a huge loss.

I’m not predicting doomsday. Americans are a free and diverse people; this translates into supreme resiliency for our economy. There’s never any telling just how it will reinvent itself. Who would have predicted the demise of the manufacturing base, the efficiency of the service sector that would supplant it, or how things like the internet would pop out of nowhere to revolutionize business?

Final message: it may not be smooth sailing for the housing market over the next few years, but don’t bet against the U.S. economy in the long term.

I’ve held off publishing this for a while because I’ve been angry about some things I’ve witnessed. But a few weeks have passed, and despite the fact that the picketers have moved on to another store, I realize I’m not going to feel any better about it.

I have never been terribly supportive of the union in this pathetic grocery strike. But as this thing enters its sixth week, I find myself hoping that the strikers never get their jobs back.

It has nothing to do with the issues they’re striking over. It has everything to do with the conduct of the picketers. It’s been pathetic. No–more than that, it’s been criminal.

I’ve seen pregnant women heckled as they entered the Ralph’s near my house.

I’ve seen rocks thrown at cars.

And one day as I was passing by this Ralph’s, I heard one of the strikers extorting food from a local pizza joint. He called the restaurant on his cell phone and said that if the picketers weren’t provided with several pizzas gratis, “we’ll remember you” and there would be “hell to pay” when the strike was over.

So screw ‘em. I’m not anti-union–heck, I belong to a union myself–but I’ve had it with stuff like that. Or this. Or this. Or this.

The selection at my local Ralph’s is poor, the quality of produce mediocre, and the store hours limited. But I’ll live on Top Ramen for the rest of my life before I give people like that a single iota of support.

I’m also happy to report that the store runs just fine without them. Whoever Ralph’s got to fill in for the baggers and checkers is doing a perfectly acceptable job. The problems with the quality and selection of food are caused by truckers who refuse to cross the picket line. It has nothing to do with the replacement workers.

I almost wish the picketers would heckle me. It would give me a chance to ask them what they expect families to do. The strike is affecting every grocery store in my area except for Gelson’s (which is prohibitively expensive) and Stater Brothers (which is 20 minutes away and now jam-packed with people all day long). Eating is not an option.

It may seem unfair to judge tens of thousands of union members based on the actions of a few miscreants. But that’s the way the cookie crumbles. Every time a pilot does or says something stupid, it affects my whole industry–that’s why pilots know they have to police themselves. Should I hold an unskilled part-time grocery clerk to a lesser standard?

I don’t think so.

One issue that keeps coming up in aviation circles is which company to go with for a new or STC upgrade propeller. In fact, someone just emailed me today asking my opinion on this issue. Her McCauley prop had been condemned and she was trying to decide between another McCauley or a Hartzell Top Prop conversion.

I guess if you’re flying an experimental, you have a lot of options–Catto, Sensenich, MT Prop, Whirlwind, etc. But for those of us flying certificated aircraft behind a constant speed prop, it usually comes down to Hartzell vs. McCauley.

I have the original McCauley 2A34-C203 on my Skylane and it’s perfectly fine. However, I made a detailed inspection of the Hartzell factory in Piqua, Ohio last summer and was extremely impressed by what I saw. The company was owned by a large conglomerate (TRW) for a while, but Jim Brown bought it from TRW and took the company private again. When I was there, the president even took the time to say hello and sit down with us to answer questions.

The Hartzell factory is very modern–everything is done on CNC machines except for some final grinding and shaping. That’s done by highly experienced (and compensated) craftsman. I’m was also impressed that some very demanding folks who need top performing props always seem to choose Hartzell. Sean Tucker, Wayne Handley, NASA, Rutan, etc.

The thing that stuck with me the most about Hartzell is how much they value their employees. The average tenure of a Hartzell employee is more than 20 years, and it shows.

McCauley seems to be just the opposite. It once was an independent company that was highly regarded in the general aviation industry. But it was purchased by a large conglomerate called Textron. This is the same multi-billion dollar corporation that now owns Cessna Aircraft, Bell Helicopter, and Lycoming.

Last summer, the original plan was to visit the McCauley factory, not Hartzell. McCauley was chosen because they made most of the props on the pre-96 Cessna fleet. But shortly before we flew out to Ohio, Textron decided to move the whole McCauley plant to another location to save money. Which is perfectly fine. But Textron decided not to take any of their employees with them! So the McCauley factory is working with all new people, and the quality is an unknown. There were rumors of low morale at the company as well. The McCauley web site was out of date last year, and at the moment is not even operational.

So based on my experiences, if I needed to pick a prop right now, I would go with Hartzell. The fact that they are cheaper would make the decision that much easier for me.

My pal Rich Manning has some serious concerns about who is–and isn’t–being inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. After looking at this year’s list of honorees (George Harrison, ZZ Top, Prince, Jackson Browne, and Bob Seger), your humble host joins him in weeping for the future.

I hate to bring up the obvious, but shouldn’t there be a “freak factor” limit for inductees? For example, even if Michael Jackson were the undisputed hands-down greatest musician of all time, should he be inducted if he’s convicted of molesting 50 children?

What would happen to the list of eligible artists if some common sense were injected into the process of selecting inductees? Let’s take a look.

In Prince’s case, he would fall victim to the “your name must be pronounceable without using a complex series of clicks and whistles” requirement. Any artist whose name cannot be uttered without mastering the conjugation of verbs in Esperanto should not be in the Hall of Fame until they’ve bought the world a Coke–and a set of Hooked on Phonics tapes.

Both Prince and Jackson would be eliminated from consideration by virtue of the “cannot have tried to change your skin color from black to white” rule.

And can I get an “amen” on some limit to plastic surgery? The artist being inducted to the Hall of Fame should at least bear a slight resemblance to the person who recorded the music. If you’ve intentionally turned yourself into the Elephant Man or obliterated any clues as to your gender, you’re out. See ya, Jacko.

Of course, this sort of genuine-draft-cold-filtering process could get ugly. The Hall of Fame shouldn’t be burdened with such politically explosive decisions. Therefore, prudence dictates that they let me make the call. If I hate the artist in question, they’re out (see ya Jacko, redux). If I like them, they might have a chance (again sayeth the Lord: see ya, Jacko).

“It’s gold, Jerry. Gold!”

Seger, Browne, and certainly George Harrison are ok. But ZZ Top? Please. If it was my call, they’d be out on their banjo strumming butts. They belong in the Confederate Moonshine Drinkers Hall of Fame, not the Rock Hall. Anyone who hasn’t shaved since Nixon was in China doesn’t need to be in the Hall of Fame. What they need is to undergo a “Queer Eye for the Straight Guy” makeover by the Fab 5.

Perhaps the real problem is that the Hall of Fame is like Movieland Wax Museum, only less relevant. And it doesn’t even have an integrated Starbucks coffee shop like Movieland. Let’s face it, wax gets a lot more interesting when you add coffee to the mix. If only it was that easy to fix the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame…

And how was your Thanksgiving? No knock-down, drag-out family arguements, I hope? Lesley and I spent a simple but pleasant day together. We didn’t even cook–we ate out!

Scandalous.

It’s the first time I’d ever done that, and it was actually fun. Leaving the kitchen duties to someone else allowed us time to relax, laugh, and think about what were thankful for. Sounds hokey. But with all the cooking, preparing, decorating, and traveling that most folks do, the “core” of Thanksgiving can get lost in the static. So it was refreshing to spend Thanksgiving just being Thankful.

Earlier in the day we had a light brunch in Costa Mesa, then walked around Balboa Island and admired the holiday decorations. Lesley pointed out that this is a weird time of year for that sort of thing. The laggards still haven’t taken down their Halloween stuff, while some have Thanksgiving decorations up, and still other homes are already adorned for Christmas or Hanukkah.

There’s one house right on the water that we’ve always admired. The architecture is a fascinating amalgam of glass, copper, and concrete. When we took the Newport Harbor Tour last year, the guide told us this was his favorite home.

Anyway, as we sauntered down the sidewalk today, Lesley said, “Hey–that’s the one the tour guide loved so much.” A kindly old lady trimming plants in front of the property said, “You like this one, eh? Go on in and take a look!”

After confirming that she was the owner and not just some stranger egging us on, we looked at each other and thought, “Why not?”. So in we went. Margie gave us some insight into the fascinating choice of materials. The walls are plain concrete. Ceilings are Douglas fir, and the steel beams that support the structure are exposed throughout the house. She also showed us how the famous motorized glass facade worked. With the push of a button, an entire wall of the house retracts into the side of the building. It’s like putting the top down on a Ford Mustang. But instead of a $15,000 car, this was a $4 million island home.

Margie was very kind and we didn’t want to impose, but bless her heart–she insisted we take our time and really look around. Add people like that to the list of things I’m thankful for!

I did a Google search this evening, trying to find a photo of some Balboa Island real estate to give you an idea of what the houses down there look like. Lo and behold, Google turned up an entire L.A. Times article dedicated to this very home! Apparently the architect was a well-known student of Frank Lloyd Wright.

Anyway, now that the turkey day is behind us, the Christmas season can officially begin. Sure, it’s been going on in the malls, catalogues, and stores for months now. But I don’t do any holiday shopping, decorating, or singing until after Thanksgiving. I know we’re supposed to celebrate Christmas in our hearts all year long, but when the twelve days last twelve months, I can’t help but think “when is this gonna end?”.

To celebrate the start of the holiday season, I’ve created a new skin for the House of Rapp. I’m not thrilled with the greyish colors for the content and menu containers, but oh well. If any of you have suggestions for better colors, let me know.

Now let’s get out there and shop, shop, SHOP!

I recently learned that two of my best friends from college will soon enter the ranks of parenthood!

For those of you who don’t know them, this might not make a lot of sense. But since picking out a name can be tough, I took the liberty of putting together a Top 10 list of potential names for the Schulz’s child:

10. The Wizard of Schulz

9.  Schlitz Schulz

8.  Product Schulz

7.  Gumshoe Schulz

6.  Chicken Diver Schulz

5.  Sargent Schulz

4.  Notorious B.O.C. (Big Orange Crayon)

3.  Rosarito Schulz

2.  Royale with Schulz

… and the number one name for the Schulz child:

1.  McSchulz